This invention relates to a method for predicting cognitive performance of an individual preferably based on that individual""s prior sleep/wake history, the time of day, and tasks (or activities) being performed by the individual.
Maintenance of productivity in any workplace setting depends upon effective cognitive performance at all levels from command/control or management down to the individual soldier or worker. Effective cognitive performance in turn depends upon complex mental operations. Many factors have been shown to affect cognitive performance (e.g., drugs or age). However, of the numerous factors causing day to day variations in cognitive performance, two have been shown to have the greatest impact. These two factors are an individual""s prior sleep/wake history and the time of day.
Adequate sleep sustains cognitive performance. With less than adequate sleep, cognitive performance degrades over time. An article by Thorne et al. entitled xe2x80x9cPlumbing Human Performance Limits During 72 hours of High Task Loadxe2x80x9d in Proceedings of the 24th DRG Seminar on the Human as a Limiting Element in Military Systems, Defense and Civil Institute of Environmental Medicine, pp. 17-40 (1983), an article by Newhouse et al. entitled xe2x80x9cThe Effects of d-Amphetamine on Arousal, Cognition, and Mood After Prolonged Total Sleep Deprivationxe2x80x9d published in Neuropsychopharmacology, vol. 2, pp. 153-164 (1989), and another article by Newhouse et al. entitled xe2x80x9cStimulant Drug Effects on Performance and Behavior After Prolonged Sleep Deprivation: A Comparison of Amphetamine, Nicotine, and Deprenylxe2x80x9d published in Military Psychology, vol. 4, pp. 207-233 (1992) all describe studies of normal volunteers in which it is revealed that robust, cumulative decrements in cognitive performance occur during continuous total sleep deprivation as measured by computer-based testing and complex operational simulation. In the Dinges et al. article entitled xe2x80x9cCumulative Sleepiness, Mood Disturbance, and Psychomotor Vigilance Performance Decrements During a Week of Sleep Restricted to 4-5 Hours Per Nightxe2x80x9d published in Sleep, vol. 20, pp. 267-277 (1997), it is revealed that on fixed, restricted daily sleep amounts, cumulative reduced sleep also leads to a cognitive performance decline. Thus, in operational settings, both civilian and military, sleep deprivation reduces productivity (output of useful work per unit of time) on cognitive tasks.
Thus, using computer-based cognitive performance tests, it has been shown that total sleep deprivation degrades human cognitive performance by approximately 25% for each successive period of 24 hours awake. However, it also has been shown that even small amounts of sleep reduce the rate of sleep loss-induced cognitive performance degradation. Belenky et al. in their article entitled xe2x80x9cSustaining Performance During Continuous Operations: The U.S. Army""s Sleep Management System,xe2x80x9d published in 20th Army Science Conference Proceedings, vol. 2, pp. 657-661 (1996) disclose that a single 30-minute nap every 24 hours reduces the rate of cognitive performance degradation to 17% per day over 85 hours of sleep deprivation. This suggests that recuperation of cognitive performance during sleep accrues most rapidly early in the sleep period. No other factor besides the amount of sleep contributes so substantially and consistently to the normal, daily variations in cognitive performance.
In addition to sleep/wake history, an individual""s cognitive performance at a given point in time is determined by the time of day. In the early 1950s, Franz Halberg and associates observed a 24-hour periodicity in a host of human physiologic (including body temperature and activity), hematologic, and hormonal functions, and coined the term xe2x80x98circadianxe2x80x99 (Latin for xe2x80x98about a dayxe2x80x99) to describe this cyclic rhythm. Halberg showed that most noise in experimental data came from comparisons of data sampled at different times of day.
When humans follow a nocturnal sleep/diurnal wake schedule (for example, an 8-hour sleep/16-hour wake cycle, with nightly sleep commencing at approximately midnight), body temperature reaches a minimum (trough) usually between 2:00 AM and 6:00 AM. Body temperature then begins rising to a maximum (peak) usually between 8:00 PM and 10:00 PM. Likewise, systematic studies of daily human cognitive performance rhythms show that speed of responding slowly improves across the day to reach a maximum in the evening (usually between 8:00 PM and 10:00 PM) then dropping more rapidly to a minimum occurring in the early morning hours (usually between 2:00 AM and 6:00 AM). Similar but somewhat less consistent rhythms have been shown from testing based on various cognitive performance tasks. Thus, superimposed on the effect of total sleep deprivation on cognitive performance noted above was an approximately xc2x110% variation in cognitive performance over each 24-hour period.
Various measures have been shown to correlate, to some extent, with cognitive performance. These include objective and subjective measures of sleepiness (or its converse, alertness). Some individuals familiar with the art use xe2x80x9csleepinessxe2x80x9d to indicate the opposite of xe2x80x9calertnessxe2x80x9d (as is the case in the present document). xe2x80x9cDrowsinessxe2x80x9d often is used interchangeably with xe2x80x9csleepinessxe2x80x9d although some familiar with the art would argue that xe2x80x9csleepinessxe2x80x9d pertains specifically to the physiological need for sleep whereas xe2x80x9cdrowsinessxe2x80x9d refers more to the propensity or ability to fall asleep (independent of physiological sleep need) or the subjective feeling of lack of alertness. The term xe2x80x9cfatiguexe2x80x9d has been used as a synonym for xe2x80x9csleepinessxe2x80x9d by the lay population, but those familiar with the art do not consider xe2x80x9cfatiguexe2x80x9d to be interchangeable with xe2x80x9csleepinessxe2x80x9dxe2x80x94rather, xe2x80x9cfatiguexe2x80x9d is a broad term that encompasses more than just the effects of sleep loss per se on performance. Likewise, xe2x80x9ccognitive performancexe2x80x9d has been defined as performance on a wide variety of tasks, the most commonly used being vigilance tasks (tasks requiring sustained attention). From vigilance and other tasks, some researchers use accuracy as their measure of cognitive performance, while others use reaction time (or its inverse, speed). Still others use a measure that is calculated as speed multiplied by accuracy, that is the amount of useful work performed per unit of time (also known as throughput). Those familiar with the art generally agree that vigilance tasks are appropriate measures of cognitive performance under conditions of sleep deprivation, and that either reaction time (speed) or some measure that takes reaction time into account (e.g., throughput) is a valid and reliable way of measuring cognitive performance.
The Multiple Sleep Latency Test (MSLT) is a widely accepted objective measure of sleepiness/alertness. In the MSLT, individuals try to fall asleep while lying in a darkened, quiet bedroom. Various physiological measures used to determine sleep or wakefulness are recorded (eye movements, brain activity, muscle tone), and time taken to reach the first 30 seconds of stage 1 (light) sleep is determined. Shorter latencies to stage 1 are considered to indicate greater sleepiness (lower alertness). Sleep latencies under 5 minutes are considered to be pathological (i.e., indicative of a sleep disorder or sleep deprivation). During both total and partial sleep deprivation, latency to sleep on the MSLT (alertness) and performance decline (i.e., sleepiness as measured by MSLT increases). However, although there is a correlation between MSLT-determined sleepiness/alertness and cognitive performance (greater sleepiness as indexed by MSLT corresponding to poorer cognitive performance), this correlation has never been shown to be perfect and for the most part is not strong. As a result, the MSLT is a poor (i.e., unreliable) predictor of cognitive performance.
Subjective measures of sleepiness/alertness also have been shown to correlate (albeit weakly) with cognitive performance. Hoddes et al. in their article entitled xe2x80x9cQuantification of Sleepiness: A New Approachxe2x80x9d published in Psychophysiology, vol. 10, pp. 431-436 (1973) describe the Stanford Sleepiness Scale (SSS), a subjective questionnaire used widely to measure sleepiness/alertness. In the SSS, individuals rate their current level of sleepiness/alertness on a scale from 1 to 7, with 1 corresponding to the statement, xe2x80x9cfeeling active and vital; alert; wide awakexe2x80x9d and 7 corresponding to the statement xe2x80x9calmost in reverie; sleep onset soon; losing struggle to remain awake.xe2x80x9d Higher SSS scores indicate greater sleepiness. As with the MSLT, during both total and partial sleep deprivation, scores on the SSS increase. However, as with MSLT, the correspondence between SSS-determined sleepiness/alertness and cognitive performance decrements is weak and inconsistent. As a result, the SSS also is a poor predictor of cognitive performance. Some other examples of subjective measures of sleepiness/alertness include the Epworth Sleepiness Scale described by Johns in his article entitled xe2x80x9cDaytime Sleepiness, Snoring, and Obstructive Sleep Apneaxe2x80x9d published in Chest, vol. 103, pp. 30-36 (1993) and the Karolinska Sleepiness scale described by Akerstedt and Gillberg in their article entitled xe2x80x9cSubjective and Objective Sleepiness in the Active Individualxe2x80x9d published in International Journal of Neuroscience, vol. 52, pp. 29-37 (1990). The correspondence between these subjective measures and cognitive performance also is weak and inconsistent.
In addition, factors modifying cognitive performance may not correspondingly affect objective or subjective measures of sleepiness/alertness, and vice versa. For example, the Penetar et al. article entitled xe2x80x9cAmphetamine Effects on Recovery Sleep Following Total Sleep Deprivationxe2x80x9d published in Human Psychopharmacology, vol. 6, pp. 319-323 (1991) discloses that during sleep deprivation, the stimulant drug d-amphetamine improved cognitive performance but not sleepiness/alertness (as measured by the MSLT). In a similar study, caffeine given as a sleep deprivation countermeasure maintained elevated cognitive performance for over 12 hours while the effects on subjective sleepiness, vigor and fatigue transiently improved but then decayed. Thorne et al. in their article entitled xe2x80x9cPlumbing Human Performance Limits During 72 hours of High Task Loadxe2x80x9d in Proceedings of the 24th DRG Seminar on the Human as a Limiting Element in Military Systems, Defense and Civil Institute of Environmental Medicine, pp. 17-40 (1983) describe how cognitive performance continues to decline over 72 hours of sleep deprivation whereas subjective sleepiness/alertness declined over the first 24 hours but subsequently leveled off. The findings that cognitive performance and measures of sleepiness/alertness are not always affected in the same way indicate that they are not interchangeable. That is, measures of sleepiness/alertness cannot be used to predict cognitive performance, and vice versa.
Methods and apparatuses related to alertness detection fall into five basic categories: a method/apparatus for unobtrusively monitoring current alertness level; a method/apparatus for unobtrusively monitoring current alertness level and providing a warning/alarm to the user of decreased alertness and/or to increase user""s alertness level; a method/apparatus for monitoring current alertness level based on the user""s responses to some secondary task possibly with an alarm device to warn the user of decreased alertness and/or to increase user""s alertness level; methods to increase alertness; and a method/apparatus for predicting past, current, or future alertness.
These methods and apparatuses that unobtrusively monitor the current alertness level are based on an xe2x80x9cembedded measuresxe2x80x9d approach. That is, such methods infer alertness/drowsiness from the current level of some factor (e.g., eye position or closure) assumed to correlate with alertness/drowsiness. Issued patents of this type include U.S. Pat. No. 5,689,241 to J. Clarke, Sr., et al. disclosing an apparatus to detect eye closure and ambient temperature around the nose and mouth; U.S. Pat. No. 5,682,144 to K. Mannik disclosing an apparatus to detect eye closure; and U.S. Pat. No. 5,570,698 to C. Liang et al. disclosing an apparatus to monitor eye localization and motion to detect sleepiness. An obvious disadvantage of these types of methods and apparatuses is that the measures are likely detecting sleep onset itself rather than small decreases in alertness.
In some patents, methods for embedded monitoring of alertness/drowsiness are combined with additional methods for signaling the user of decreased alertness and/or increasing alertness. Issued patents of this type include U.S. Pat. No. 5,691,693 to P. Kithil describing a device that senses a vehicle operator""s head position and motion to compare current data to profiles of xe2x80x9cnormalxe2x80x9d head motion and xe2x80x9cimpairedxe2x80x9d head motion. Warning devices are activated when head motion deviates from the xe2x80x9cnormalxe2x80x9d in some predetermined way. U.S. Pat. No. 5,585,785 to R. Gwin et al. describes an apparatus and a method for measuring total handgrip pressure on a steering wheel such that an alarm is sounded when the grip pressure falls below a predetermined xe2x80x9clower limitxe2x80x9d indicating drowsiness. U.S. Pat. No. 5,568,127 to H. Bang describes a device for detecting drowsiness as indicated by the user""s chin contacting an alarm device, which then produces a tactile and auditory warning. U.S. Pat. No. 5,566,067 to J. Hobson et al. describes a method and an apparatus to detect eyelid movements. A change in detected eyelid movements from a predetermined threshold causes an output signal/alarm (preferably auditory). As with the first category of methods and apparatuses, a disadvantage here is that the measures are likely detecting sleep onset itself rather than small decreases in alertness.
Other alertness/drowsiness monitoring devices have been developed based on a xe2x80x9cprimary/secondary taskxe2x80x9d approach. For example, U.S. Pat. No. 5,595,488 to E. Gozlan et al. describes an apparatus and a method for presenting auditory, visual, or tactile stimuli to an individual to which the individual must respond (secondary task) while performing the primary task of interest (e.g., driving). Responses on the secondary task are compared to baseline xe2x80x9calertxe2x80x9d levels for responding. U.S. Pat. No. 5,259,390 to A. MacLean describes a device in which the user responds to a relatively innocuous vibrating stimulus. The speed to respond to the stimulus is used as a measure of the alertness level. A disadvantage here is that the apparatus requires responses to a secondary task to infer alertness, thereby altering and possibly interfering with the primary task.
Other methods exist solely for increasing alertness, depending upon the user to self-evaluate alertness level and activate the device when the user feels drowsy. An example of the latter is U.S. Pat. No. 5,647,633 and related patents to M. Fukuoka in which a method/apparatus is described for causing the user""s seat to vibrate when the user detects drowsiness. Obvious disadvantages of such devices are that the user must be able to accurately self-assess his/her current level of alertness, and that the user must be able to correctly act upon this assessment.
Methods also exist to predict alertness level based on user inputs known empirically to modify alertness. U.S. Pat. No. 5,433,223 to M. Moore-Ede et al. describes a method for predicting the likely alertness level of an individual at a specific point in time (past, current or future) based upon a mathematical computation of a variety of factors (referred to as xe2x80x9creal-worldxe2x80x9d factors) that bear some relationship to alterations in alertness. The individual""s Baseline Alertness Curve (BAC) is first determined based on five inputs and represents the optimal alertness curve displayed in a stable environment. Next, the BAC is modified by alertness modifying stimuli to arrive at a Modified Baseline Alertness Curve. Thus, the method is a means for predicting an individual""s alertness level, not cognitive performance.
Another method has been designed to predict xe2x80x9cwork-related fatiguexe2x80x9d as a function of number of hours on duty. Fletcher and Dawson describe their method in an article entitled xe2x80x9cA Predictive Model of Work-Related Fatigue Based on Hours of Workxe2x80x9d published in Journal of Occupational Health and Safety, vol. 13, 471-485 (1997). In this model a simplifying assumption is madexe2x80x94it is assumed that length of on-duty time correlates positively with time awake. To implement the method, the user inputs a real or hypothetical on-duty/off-duty (work/rest) schedule. Output from the model is a score that indicates xe2x80x9cwork-related fatigue.xe2x80x9d Although this xe2x80x9cwork-related fatiguexe2x80x9d score has been shown to correlate with some performance measures, it is not a direct measure of cognitive performance per se. It can be appreciated that the fatigue score will be less accurate under circumstances when the presumed relationship between on-duty time and time awake breaks downxe2x80x94for example when a person works a short shift but then spends time working on projects at home rather than sleeping or when a person works long shifts but conscientiously sleeps all the available time at home. Also, this method is obtrusive in that the user must input on-duty/off-duty information rather than such information being automatically extracted from an unobtrusive recording device. In addition, the model is limited to predictions of xe2x80x9cfatiguexe2x80x9d based on work hours. Overall, this model is limited to work-related situations in which shift length consistently correlates (inversely) with sleep length.
Given the importance of the amount of sleep and the time of day for determining cognitive performance (and hence estimating productivity or effectiveness), and given the ever-increasing requirements of most occupations on cognitive performance, it is desirable to design a reliable and accurate method of predicting cognitive performance. It can be appreciated that increasing the number of relevant inputs increases cognitive performance prediction accuracy. However, the relative benefits gained from such inputs must be weighed against the additional burdens/costs associated with their collection and input. For example, although certain fragrances have been shown to have alertness-enhancing properties, these effects are inconsistent and negligible compared to the robust effects of the individual""s sleep/wake history and the time of day. More important, the effect of fragrances on cognitive performance is unknown. Requiring an individual to keep a log of exposure to fragrances would be time consuming to the individual and only result in negligible gains in cognitive performance prediction accuracy. In addition, while the effects of the sleep/wake history and the time of day on cognitive performance are well known, the effects of other putative alertness-altering factors (e.g., job stress), how to measure them (their operational definition), and their direction of action (cognitive performance enhancing or degrading) are virtually unknown.
An important and critical distinction between the present invention and the prior art is that the present invention is a model to predict performance on tasks with a cognitive component. In contrast, previous models involving sleep and/or circadian rhythms (approximately 24-hour) focused on the prediction of xe2x80x9calertnessxe2x80x9d or xe2x80x9csleepiness.xe2x80x9d The latter are concepts that specifically relate to the propensity to initiate sleep, not the ability to perform a cognitive task.
Although sleepiness (or its converse, alertness) could be viewed as an intervening variable that can mediate cognitive performance, the scientific literature clearly shows that cognitive performance and alertness are conceptually distinct, as reviewed by Johns in the article entitled xe2x80x9cRethinking the Assessment of Sleepinessxe2x80x9d published in Sleep Medicine Reviews, vol. 2, pp. 3-15 (1998) and as reviewed by Mitler et al. in the article entitled xe2x80x9cMethods of Testing for Sleepinessxe2x80x9d published in Behavioral Medicine, vol. 21, pp. 171-183 (1996). Thomas et al. in the article entitled xe2x80x9cRegional Cerebral Metabolic Effects of Prolonged Sleep Deprivationxe2x80x9d published in NeuroImage, vol. 7, p. S130 (1998) reveal that 1-3 days of sleep loss result in reductions in global brain activation of approximately 6%, as measured by regional cerebral glucose uptake. However, those regions (heteromodal association cortices) that mediate the highest order cognitive functions (including but not limited to attention, vigilance, situational awareness, planning, judgment, and decision making) are selectively deactivated by sleep loss to a much greater extentxe2x80x94up to 50%xe2x80x94after three days of sleep loss. Thus, decreases in neurobiological functioning during sleep restriction/deprivation are directly reflected in cognitive performance degradation. These findings are consistent with studies demonstrating that tasks requiring higher-order cognitive functions, especially those tasks requiring attention, planning, etc. (abilities mediated by heteromodal association areas) are especially sensitive to sleep loss. On the other hand, brain regions such as primary sensory regions, are deactivated to a lesser degree. Concomitantly, performance (e.g., vision, hearing, strength and endurance tasks) that is dependent on these regions is virtually unaffected by sleep loss.
Consequently, devices or inventions that predict xe2x80x9calertnessxe2x80x9d per se (e.g., Moore-Ede et al.) putatively quantify the brain""s underlying propensity to initiate sleep at any given point in time. That is, devices or inventions that predict xe2x80x9calertnessxe2x80x9d (or its converse xe2x80x9csleepinessxe2x80x9d) predict the extent to which sleep onset is likely. The present invention differs from such approaches in that the nature of the task is accounted forxe2x80x94i.e., it is not the propensity to initiate sleep that is predicted. Rather, the present invention predicts the extent to which performance of a particular task will be impaired by virtue of its reliance upon brain areas most affected by sleep deprivation (heteromodal association areas of the brain). The most desirable method will produce a highly reliable and accurate cognitive performance estimate based on the sleep/wake history of an individual, the time of day, and the amount of time on a particular task.
A method for determining cognitive performance levels based on a data series having at least one wake state and at least one sleep state in accordance with the invention includes analyzing the data series to select the function; determining a cognitive performance capacity using the selected function; modulating the cognitive performance capacity with a time of day value; providing the modulated value; when a piece of data within the data series is inconclusive, then selecting at least two functions, determining a cognitive performance capacity using each function, modulating each cognitive performance capacity with a time of day value, and providing each modulated value; and repeating the above steps at least once.
A method for obtaining a cognitive performance level in accordance with invention includes transmitting a data series representing wake states and sleep states of an individual to an external device, and receiving at least one predicted cognitive performance level from the external device.
A method for providing a cognitive performance level in accordance with the invention includes receiving a data series representing at least one wake state and at least one sleep state, selecting a function based on the data series, determining a cognitive performance capacity using the selected function, modulating the cognitive performance capacity with a time of day value, and providing the modulated value.
An apparatus for predicting cognitive performance in accordance with the invention includes an input that receives data, a data analyzer connected to the input to select a calculation function responsive to the received data, a calculator connected to the data analyzer to calculate a cognitive performance capacity using the calculation function, an evaluator connected to the input to determine a task value based on the received data, a memory that stores modulation data, and a modulator connected to the memory, the evaluator, and the calculator.
A system for monitoring the cognitive performance level of each of a plurality of individuals in accordance with the invention includes a plurality of data collectors, each of the data collectors is attached to a respective individual, a receiver in communication with each of the plurality of data collectors, a data analyzer connected to the input to select a calculation function responsive to the received data for at least one of the plurality of data collectors, a calculator connected to the data analyzer to calculate a cognitive performance capacity using the calculation function for at least one of the plurality of data collectors, an evaluator connected to the input to determine a task value based on the received data for at least one of the plurality of data collectors, a memory that stores modulation data, and a modulator connected to the memory, the evaluator, and the calculator.
An apparatus for providing a cognitive performance level in accordance with the invention includes means for receiving a data series having at least one wake state and at least one sleep state, means for selecting a function based on the data series, means for determining a cognitive performance capacity using the selected function, means for storing a series of time of day values, means for modulating the cognitive performance capacity with a corresponding time of day value, and means for providing the modulated value.
An apparatus for obtaining a cognitive performance level from an external device in accordance with the invention includes means for transmitting a data series having at least one wake state and at least one sleep state to the external device, and means for receiving at least one predicted cognitive performance level from the external device.
A feature of the present invention is that it provides a numerical representation of predicted cognitive performance with an immediate ergonomic and economic advantage, i.e., an indication of productivity or effectiveness of an individual. Another feature of the present invention is that it does not require or use measurements/computations that are indirect, intermediate, inferential or hypothetical concomitants of cognitive performance. Examples of the latter are alertness, sleepiness, time to sleep onset, body temperature and/or other physiological measures that vary with time. A further feature of the invention is that it accounts for transient or adventitious variations in cognitive performance from any source as a result of how that source affects the sleep/wake history (e.g., age) and/or physiological time of day (e.g., shift work). In effect, such sources are not treated as having effects on cognitive performance independent of the sleep/wake history and/or the time of day, and as such do not require separate measurement, tabulation, and input into the method.
One objective of this invention is to provide an accurate method for predicting cognitive performance of an individual.
A further objective is to provide a method that facilitates prediction of the effects of possible future sleep/wake histories on cognitive performance (forward prediction).
Another objective is to provide a method that facilitates retrospective analysis of likely prior cognitive performance based on the individual""s sleep/wake history, the time of day, and the activities done by the individual.
Another objective is to provide a method for coordination and optimization of available sleep/wake time in order to obtain net optimal predicted cognitive performance for an individual and/or a group of individuals.
It can be appreciated that an implicit advantage and novelty of the method is its parsimony. The method uses those factors possessing maximal predictive value (as demonstrated empirically) as continuously updated inputs. Thus, the model will be simple to implement. Other models predicting xe2x80x9calertnessxe2x80x9d require the user to track multiple input variables (e.g., caffeine, alcohol ingestion, light/dark exposure, diurnal type), rather than presenting these inputs as optional xe2x80x9cattachmentsxe2x80x9d to a standard, simplified model based on those factors accounting for maximum cognitive performance change. For example, in accordance with a segment of the present method, the effects of age on cognitive performance are accounted for implicitly via the empirically derived effects of age on sleep. That is, sleep quality degrades with age. The inherent degradation in sleep quality with aging would implicitly result in a prediction of degraded cognitive performance (since in the present method degraded sleep results in a prediction of degraded cognitive performance), even if an individual""s age were unknown. Therefore, age need not constitute a separate (independent) input variable to a cognitive performance prediction model.
The invention also provides other significant advantages. For example, an advantage of this invention is the elimination of a need for empirical evaluation.
Another advantage of this invention is obtaining an accurate prediction of cognitive performance of an individual. The advantage may be achieved by a method incorporating three factors that have been empirically demonstrated to exert a significant effect on cognitive performance, namely, (1) the individual""s sleep/wake history, (2) the time of day (xe2x80x9cdayxe2x80x9d herein referring to a 24-hour period including both nighttime and daylight hours), and (3) the individual""s time on a particular task.
Another advantage achieved by this invention is an accurate prediction of current cognitive performance.
Another advantage achieved by this invention is that it is capable of providing a real time prediction of cognitive performance.
Yet another advantage achieved by this invention is a prediction of future expected cognitive performance throughout the day based on hypothetical future sleep/wake periods.
An additional advantage achieved by this invention is a retrospective analysis of cognitive performance at given times.
A further advantage of the invention is that a particular cognitive performance prediction is not based on normative data (i.e., does not require a xe2x80x9clook-up tablexe2x80x9d for output), but rather is calculated directly based on each individual""s sleep/wake information, the time of day, and the time on a task.
A further advantage of the invention is that it can be used to optimize the individual""s future sleep/wake schedule based on a fixed mission/work schedule. Previous methods and apparatuses are directed toward modifying the work schedule and/or mission to xe2x80x9cfit the individual.xe2x80x9d In most situations, however, work schedules and/or missions are fixed. Thus, modifying the work schedule or mission to suit the individual is impractical or impossible. A more reasonable approach incorporated in the present method is to allow the individual to adjust his/her sleep/wake periods to meet work/mission demands. Thus, the current method presents a more practical alternative by providing a means to regulate work hours to a directly applicable metric (cognitive performance) instead of regulating work hours by time off duty or by using indirect measures of cognitive performance such as alertness.
A feature of this invention is the provision of a graphical representation that translates an individual""s sleep/wake history and the time of day into an immediately useful, self-evident index. A prediction of cognitive performance, unlike a prediction of xe2x80x9calertnessxe2x80x9d or xe2x80x9csleepiness,xe2x80x9d requires no further interpretation.
The method for predicting human cognitive performance in accordance with the invention accomplishes the above objectives and achieves the above advantages. The method and resulting apparatus are easily adapted to a wide variety of situations and types of inputs.
In accordance with an aspect of the invention, an individual sleep/wake history is inputted into a processing device. The processing device classifies the individual pieces of sleep/wake history data as either sleep or wake. Based on the classification of data, the processing device selects and calculates a cognitive performance capacity corresponding to the present state of the individual, the cognitive performance capacity may be modified by a time of day value to adjust the cognitive performance capacity to a predicted cognitive performance. The predicted cognitive performance represents the ability of the individual to perform cognitive tasks. The predicted cognitive performance may be displayed for a real-time indication or as part of a curve, printed out with the information that could have been displayed, and/or stored for later retrieval and/or use. The calculation of the cognitive performance capacity is made based on functions that model the effect of the interrelationship of sleep and being awake on cognitive performance. The time of day function models the effect of an individual""s circadian rhythms on cognitive performance.
In accordance with the underlying method of the invention, the method can be accomplished with a wide variety of apparatus. Examples of the possible apparatus embodiments include electronic hardware as either dedicated equipment or equipment internal to a computer, software embodied in computer readable material for use by computers, software resident in memory or a programmed chip for use in computers or dedicated equipment, or some combination of both hardware and software. The dedicated equipment may be part of a larger device that would complement the dedicated equipment""s purpose.
Given the following enabling description of the drawings, the invention should become evident to a person of ordinary skill in the art.